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[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Biohazard wrote:

Great work mate, as always! You already know my thoughts on this.

Haha tbh mate I’m more interested in whether any of the conspiracy crowd can point to anything I’ve written here as being factually incorrect and actually say look Argyl, see where you’ve written this, your logic is wrong and this is why. Or if they can point to a line in my program and show me it’s a flaw which makes the results rigged. But I’m reasonably confident that’s not going to happen.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

@groundiskey cheers mate, really glad at least one person’s got something out of my efforts this afternoon!

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

I just came in to this thread for the free hug, I haven’t even posted in it until now…why is my name being mentioned as if I’ve done something wrong?

Never mind. One hug please 🙂

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

In another thread, https://www.backinamo.com/forum/topic/lets-look-at-a-slots-programming/ I have written a “one arm bandit” style slot game, shown the code which you can run yourself at home, broken down exactly how each line of it works, demonstrated how each spin is completely independent and random and given the probability calculations with an explanation of how this forms the RTP. Also sample results of a number of spins and wins ranging from 10 to a million.

That’s not just hard evidence, it’s the whole shebang, completely transparent. So I’m not going to be rude to anyone or argue any further with anyone about how these games work…I have left that material on the forum for anyone to see, simply because I do feel very strongly it’s important no one here is misled by anyone’s misunderstandings about what online slots are and how they run.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Fun fact: the name of this show was the inspiration for my Chrome extension BanditSnatch https://www.backinamo.com/forum/topic/i-give-you-banditsnatch/

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Part II: Calculating the theoretical RTP.

Look at the reel layouts in the code. Each reel has 20 positions. On Reel 1, 10 of them are Xs. On Reel 2, 11 are Xs and on Reel 3, 9 are Xs.

So our probability of hitting X-X-X for a 2x win are about 1 in 8:

P(X-X-X) = P(XonReel1) * P(XonReel2) * P(XonReel3) = (10/20) * (11/20) * (9/20) = 0.12357 = (almost exactly 1 in 8)

This means across 1 million spins, we would expect 123,570 of them to yield X-X-X on the win line. Notice in the results above, we were very close on the million spins – 123,663 of them gave X-X-X.

Let’s do the same calculation for BARs and 7s:

BARs: (7/20) * (7/20) * (9/20) = 0.055 = just over 1 in 20 chance of hitting 3 BARs on the win line. In a million spins, this is 55,000 spins which will hit BAR-BAR-BAR and pay 10x. In the results above, we see in a million spins we hit 55,177. So again, almost spot on.

7s: 7s pay a huge 100x win, so there aren’t many on the reels, just 3 on the first reel and two each on the others.

(3/20) * (2/20) * (2/20) = 0.0015 = only 3 in 2000 spins will hit a 7-7-7 line, so in a million spins we expect a mere 1500 jackpot line hits. In the results above, once again we were almost spot on with the RNG, at 1496 jackpot lines.

How does all of this combine to give us theoretical RTP? Simple. In one million spins, we take it (1 million x Bet Size) so let’s say £1,000,000 and according to the probabilities above we expect to pay out:

£100 x 1500 = £150,000
+ £10 x 55,000 = £550,000
+ £2 x 123,570 = £247,140

= £947,140 = 94.714% theoretical RTP.

This is from just 180,000 of 1 million spins paying out a prize, meaning you have just under 1 in 5 chance of hitting any win in any given spin. So we have a nearly 95% RTP despite the fact roughly 78% of spins will not pay a prize at all.

I hope this has been informative 🙂 peace out!

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Here are some sample results from a series of runs for anyone who can’t run the code. Notice how the more spins are in a run, the less and less divergence we have from that 95% theoretical RTP. When we only do 10-500 spins, the RTP can be as low as 0% and as high as 134%. By the time we’re doing 100,000 spins, we’re barely deviating from the theoretical RTP at all. By one million spins, you have an almost spot-on match between the theoretical and actual RTP.

Spins: 10
Total bet: 10
Total wins: 0
Number of X-X-X: 0
Number of B-B-B: 0
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 0

Spins: 10
Total bet: 10
Total wins: 10
Number of X-X-X: 0
Number of B-B-B: 1
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 100

Spins: 10
Total bet: 10
Total wins: 4
Number of X-X-X: 2
Number of B-B-B: 0
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 40

Spins: 50
Total bet: 50
Total wins: 24
Number of X-X-X: 2
Number of B-B-B: 2
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 48

Spins: 50
Total bet: 50
Total wins: 42
Number of X-X-X: 6
Number of B-B-B: 3
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 84

Spins: 50
Total bet: 50
Total wins: 36
Number of X-X-X: 3
Number of B-B-B: 3
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 72

Spins: 250
Total bet: 250
Total wins: 226
Number of X-X-X: 38
Number of B-B-B: 15
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 90.4

Spins: 250
Total bet: 250
Total wins: 196
Number of X-X-X: 38
Number of B-B-B: 12
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 78.4

Spins: 250
Total bet: 250
Total wins: 336
Number of X-X-X: 28
Number of B-B-B: 18
Number of 7-7-7: 1
RTP: 134.4

Spins: 500
Total bet: 500
Total wins: 384
Number of X-X-X: 62
Number of B-B-B: 26
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 76.8

Spins: 500
Total bet: 500
Total wins: 302
Number of X-X-X: 56
Number of B-B-B: 19
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 60.4

Spins: 1000
Total bet: 1000
Total wins: 788
Number of X-X-X: 129
Number of B-B-B: 53
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 78.8

Spins: 1000
Total bet: 1000
Total wins: 816
Number of X-X-X: 143
Number of B-B-B: 53
Number of 7-7-7: 0
RTP: 81.6

Spins: 10000
Total bet: 10000
Total wins: 10282
Number of X-X-X: 1291
Number of B-B-B: 570
Number of 7-7-7: 20
RTP: 102.82

Spins: 100000
Total bet: 100000
Total wins: 94938
Number of X-X-X: 12179
Number of B-B-B: 5468
Number of 7-7-7: 159
RTP: 94.938

Spins: 500000
Total bet: 500000
Total wins: 473616
Number of X-X-X: 62373
Number of B-B-B: 27537
Number of 7-7-7: 735
RTP: 94.7232

Spins: 1000000
Total bet: 1000000
Total wins: 948696
Number of X-X-X: 123663
Number of B-B-B: 55177
Number of 7-7-7: 1496
RTP: 94.8696

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Seedy wrote:

*Sigh* can we now stop with the RTP argument everyone please I don’t wanna have to pull my big hose out on you fine fellows lol ?

so what I will actually do is put this whole RTP shit to bed right now……

You are all entitled to believe what you want to believe in respect to rigged or not rigged RTP….

Can you just please get along again lol ? I’m ill and can’t look at my phone or PC to long as my brains hurting ? so just respect each others difference of opinion and move on ?

In respect of the subject matter, I think it’s a relevant, healthy conversation to have here. But yeah I don’t want any nastiness around it, so I will certainly promise to keep it friendly and not be baited.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Mikeskinner1985 wrote:

Hi guys.

Just wondering what people’s thoughts are, on if a bonus is due?

Ive recently gone through a shit ton of spins on wish upon a jackpot to get teased my tits off before finally hitting a couple of fairies and bonuses. (Although the scroll picking thing is normally a crap un).

And now must of gone close to 500 spins on Horus with no bonus.

This is across a number off sessions and not just all in one hit by the way.

So when playing a game, do you pursue said bonus thinking it must be coming any time. Or do you give up and try again? I know progress is tracked, so if you return to a game it doesn’t follow on, but it proper hooks you in going such a long timeframe without hitting one.

Any ways.

Much love

Mike

Hi Mike,

Bonuses are never “due”, because online slots are not compensated – each spin is completely independent and random. The slot in that respect doesn’t “know” when it last paid a bonus, or how many spins you’ve given it, or how much money it’s taken in or paid out. You might get two bonuses in a row, you might go a thousand spins without one.

However the design of a game will make the frequency of bonuses more or less likely – quite simply, if there are more scatters on the reels, you’re more likely to hit something. So there are plenty of games where going a single run of 1000 consecutive spins without hitting a bonus would be highly, highly unusual.

Hope that helps.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

@Mr B, I don’t know what you think rigged means, but that word doesn’t mean whatever you think it means. An event is rigged if its outcome can be manipulated or controlled. Clearly in this case there is no rigging, since we are solely at the mercy of a random number generator which cannot be predicted or controlled.

To any sensible, genuinely interested people – if you have any questions or discussion points, I’m happy to answer.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

To be clear, I asked the Gambling Commission this very question a while back and was unequivocally told (I am paraphrasing, but this was their answer) “it’s up to the manufacturer, we don’t prescribe how bonus features work provided the customer is not misled about their chances and the game has been properly described”.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Biohazard wrote:

Mr B wrote:

Ok Bio, give us an example of a truly random pick bonus on a slot. Also, give proof it is 100% random.

I can’t do that, as I don’t know of any. Providers are very quiet around which of their games are fully pre-determined or not. I know that Blueprints are fully pre-determined, but that’s about it. All I can say is what rules and guidelines (that all providers who want to be licensed here in the UK must adhere to) are prescribed by the Gambling Commission, and that is that they can have either.

I love how you apparently have to prove some slot bonus is random (which can be provided in the form of GC rules and their policy on independent testing) but the repeated accusation slot games are rigged is to be taken seriously with no evidence whatsoever.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Mr B wrote:

The fact that RTP/Profit governs random. I say it does, you won’t.

Because I don’t understand what you mean by that. RTP and random aren’t incompatible or at odds with each other, which is what the dice example demonstrates. Every roll of the dice is completely random, but the RTP in the design of the payouts still ensures a net profit over time.

Is there something about that you disagree with, or am I not understanding what you’re saying? Obviously in any game with a theoretical RTP of less than 100%, the player will lose some money in the long run. But surely that’s not a controversial point? I mean, that’s literally just how gambling to a house edge works. It’s how casinos don’t go bust.

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

Right, so we all agree slots have a long term RTP which is less than 100% and therefore over the long term, make a profit for their vendors. We agree that this is by design of the game. We agree each individual spin is totally random. What is it we’re disagreeing on?

[ar argyl53 WANTED $419 Outlaw]

I still have no idea what you are defining rigged to mean, but I’m certainly happy to agree to disagree at this point…I’ve explained my position and am happy you’ve understood what I’m saying. I just don’t get what you mean by RTP comes before random…the only event in this scenario is a random coin toss. The RTP is calculated from the prize levels.

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