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[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

eejit101 wrote:

The game creator told me that. I have no reason to doubt them. And yes the spins don’t have to be random to give a minimum win  of 10000x

Well, I seriously doubt that, but I guess we’ll see when someone post a bonus of 50 spins.

It should be less than 1/2600 to get up to 50 spins so.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

eejit101 wrote:

Sorry to shit on your bubble (or whatever the phrase is) but your math is flawed.

 

The win rate is seriously increased for s 50spin bonus. This game is classed as “mega volatile” by BTG its self, and there is a minimum win of 10,000 x stake if you hit 50 spins. Confirmed in person to me by the owner and senior tech of BTG.

 

So your math model isn’t based on a true rtp model. You can’t see the math behind average spins as they are anything but.

MINIMUM win of 10000x at 50 spins?????

I seriously doubt that, unless they give a extra bonus for hitting 50 spins that you win 10k X for free or something (kinda like hitting the top floor on steamtower).

If it’s classed as “mega volatile” as you say then alot of bonuses should pay way less than my numbers to even things out.

But as the game has an RTP, the AVERAGE win for free spins is exactly as I described.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

And I’m sorry if I’m sounding rude, that’s not my intention, to me this is simple math, I’m a mathematic with speciallity in pattern solving (not that I work as it) but it’s my schooling. I’ve read the highest math courses there is at the university in Sweden because I found them interesting, pattern solving and pattern thinking is something I’ve learned on my own when my brain has it’s own trips 😛

But I’ll make a new thread about that if anyone is interested.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

Roedgaard72 wrote:

SweFjorod wrote:

Roedgaard72 wrote:

SweFjorod wrote:

So I did the math for this game on Casinogrounds but I guess I can post it here as well

This game is exclusive for LeoVegas as when this is posted but it’s only exclusive for a week or so I think.

So, onward to the math.

This should be the math for the average win of each freespin type, when we assume you get a win on each spin on average.

0 spins -> 0 (duh)

8 spins -> 34,66 times the money.

10 spins -> 52,95 times the money.

12 spins -> 75,09 times the money.

14 spins -> 101,08 times the money.

16 spins -> 130,93 times the money.

18 spins -> 164,62 times the money.

20 spins -> 202,17 times the money.

22 spins -> 243,56 times the money.

25 spins -> 312,87 times the money.

30 spins -> 447,66 times the money.

40 spins -> 789,41 times the money.

50 spins -> 1227,44 times the money.

 

And the gamble feature for the freespins math is,

And the % you need for each gamble for it to be +ev for the next step, this calculation is only to gamble ONE step, and not the potential of more gambles. The math is that either you win or you loose the gamble, so ((win median*0,5 – loose median*0,5) / collect median).

The 0% = that you should gamble it, you have nothing to loose (you can’t even collect on those so :))

8->10: 76,38%

10->12: 0%

12->14: 32,05%

14->16: 38,57%

16->18: 42.64%

18->20: 45.32%

20->22: 0%

22->25: 22,73%

25->30: 39,23%

30->40: 65.59%

40->50: 64,94%

You can not make such a math model on any slots. The rtp is calculated from at least 10mil spins, depending on the provider. Even the manufacturers is not able to tell the outcome. It can give you 150 bonuses under 50x and then throw in a 2000x.

If you read it again, the AVERAGE win will be, over 1 million bonuses the average win on each of the spin types will be the number for the math I did, it’s just the fact, it’s simple math.

I see mate, but at very best it would be theoretic. I was just commentating on the thread, because those new to slots might see it as a guideline. You can`t use that as a player, when say like 100 people gets bonuses every minute on a popular game and with different outcomes.

imo the only thing you can affect is the choice of volatility on slots. Rest is luck or as most of us -unluck

Actually it’s not theoretic, on a slot with progressing multiplier and if you assume that on average you get 1 win / spin the formula for that is:

x = spins and y = spins / 2

(x*y + y) and you multiply that with the slots RTP, it not theory it’s fact math that the average win over millions of spins it will be just that.

So for 10 spins it would be 10*5+5 = 55 times the stake (on a machine that has 100% RTP)

for 20 spins it would be 20*10+10 = 210 times the stake (on a machine that has 100% RTP), etc etc etc

And how you calculate +EV is simply ((expected win * chanse of expected win) – (expected loss * chanse of expected loss))

Now for this slot you have 3 possible outcomes

1) You gamble and win

2) You gamble and loose

3) You collect your spins

So formula would be

x = average win on that number of spins (if you win the gamble)

y = average win on that number of spins (if you loose the gamble)

z = average win on the number of spins (if you collect instead of gamble)

((x*0,5) – (y*0,5)) / z = the procent you need to see if the gamble is +EV

EV = Expected Value

So +EV is on average higher win value

So if the gamble % for one of the picks is higher than the one I had in my math then it’s +EV, it’s not a guarantee but on average it’s the better call mathematicly.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

Roedgaard72 wrote:

SweFjorod wrote:

So I did the math for this game on Casinogrounds but I guess I can post it here as well

This game is exclusive for LeoVegas as when this is posted but it’s only exclusive for a week or so I think.

So, onward to the math.

This should be the math for the average win of each freespin type, when we assume you get a win on each spin on average.

0 spins -> 0 (duh)

8 spins -> 34,66 times the money.

10 spins -> 52,95 times the money.

12 spins -> 75,09 times the money.

14 spins -> 101,08 times the money.

16 spins -> 130,93 times the money.

18 spins -> 164,62 times the money.

20 spins -> 202,17 times the money.

22 spins -> 243,56 times the money.

25 spins -> 312,87 times the money.

30 spins -> 447,66 times the money.

40 spins -> 789,41 times the money.

50 spins -> 1227,44 times the money.

 

And the gamble feature for the freespins math is,

And the % you need for each gamble for it to be +ev for the next step, this calculation is only to gamble ONE step, and not the potential of more gambles. The math is that either you win or you loose the gamble, so ((win median*0,5 – loose median*0,5) / collect median).

The 0% = that you should gamble it, you have nothing to loose (you can’t even collect on those so :))

8->10: 76,38%

10->12: 0%

12->14: 32,05%

14->16: 38,57%

16->18: 42.64%

18->20: 45.32%

20->22: 0%

22->25: 22,73%

25->30: 39,23%

30->40: 65.59%

40->50: 64,94%

You can not make such a math model on any slots. The rtp is calculated from at least 10mil spins, depending on the provider. Even the manufacturers is not able to tell the outcome. It can give you 150 bonuses under 50x and then throw in a 2000x.

If you read it again, the AVERAGE win will be, over 1 million bonuses the average win on each of the spin types will be the number for the math I did, it’s just the fact, it’s simple math.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

Bandits bonus hunt on this game.

1st bonus – 10 spins – 89,1x

2nd bonus – 10 spins – 15,8x

3rd bonus – 10 spins – 11x

4rd bonus – 10 spins – 110,1x

5th bonus – 10 spins – 7,25x

Total ammount won: 233,25x on 5 bonuses.

Average bonus win: 46,65x

Acording to my math at the top, this was slightly under the average for the 10 spins bonuses, but the math hold up alltho this was just 5 bonuses.

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

I ment the calculation for the +ev % is in the original post not the RTP calculation, typo from me 🙂

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

The Bandit wrote:

Hi Patric and welcome to the forum – thanks for the great post, best of luck in the next chapter moving to Thailand!

Thanks mate, I registrated on this site along time ago, I just haven’t posted, thought it was time to do it to celebrate that you’re back on YouTube 🙂

[SweFjorod WANTED $10 Outlaw]

Biohazard wrote:

Very interesting post bud! How did you work all of this out, what data are you working with to derive these figures? Are they accurate, as an average?

Ok, to calculate the expected win on a certain ammount of spins where you expect to have on average 1 win / spin with a incrising multiplier the calculation is: ((ammount of spins * ammount of spins / 2) + half of spins) * rtp of the machine. So for example for 10 spins.

10*10 = 100

100/2 = 50

50´+5 = 55

RTP for this slot is 96,27

55 * 0,9627 = 52,9485 ~ 52.95 times the money on average

The calculation for the RTP is allready described in the original post.

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